More importance you give, less important you get

Noise vs signal in determining event significance

Takeaway

It is difficult, if not impossible, to determine an event's significance while you're living through it, due to the amount of noise vs signal.

Predicting history

We live in historic times.

Do we really though? Put another way, would you know whether an event is historic or not, while you're living through it?

The paper "Predicting history" [1] makes…