Interesting observation: If you change the "stake" amount to something more reasonable, like say betting 10% of your current wealth instead of all of it, the results are much better. Also increase the number of flips to 1000 to get a better idea of long-term behavior. Somewhere between 0% and 5% of people lose capital, and the average gain is much higher too.
Interesting observation: If you change the "stake" amount to something more reasonable, like say betting 10% of your current wealth instead of all of it, the results are much better. Also increase the number of flips to 1000 to get a better idea of long-term behavior. Somewhere between 0% and 5% of people lose capital, and the average gain is much higher too.
Really good reminder on path dependence. Thanks!
this is mind blowing, best piece I've read in 2021!
Good stuff, thanks Leon!